Filming location for spaghetti westerns in Almería, Spain

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© 1987-2016
Scott Larson

Building façade in Cannes, France

2007 Academy Award Predictions…

In my defense, I made my predictions four weeks ago, so I didn’t have the past few weeks of buzz, momentum, etc. to take into account. Does that sound too whiney? Also in my defense, I did accurately foresee that the big prizes would be split up among several of the major nominees and not all bunched all together with one or two big winners. And, of course, that makes it harder to predict how it will shake out. Okay, now that sounds really whiney. In any case, I need to start sipping a better brand of scotch when coming up with these predictions.

Personally, I think Julie Christie was robbed. But maybe there is a quota on how many Brits can collect the acting Oscars, and Daniel Day-Lewis and Tilda Swinton used up the quota. Or maybe if the quota is by category over several years, perhaps Helen Mirren used it up last year. Anyway, look for the secure-borders crowd to raise a stink since, as you will have noticed, not a single American got an acting award, although the native born (largely in the person of the Coen brothers) did manage to hold on to the other major awards. Globalization is definitely getting out of hand.

In any event, there are obviously no passionate quibbles here with the Best Picture, Directing and Original Screenplay prizes. So it wasn’t a bad year overall for the way things shook out. But I still feel bad about Julie Christie. Maybe she and Peter O’Toole could get together have a good drinking session. But, if they’re drinking scotch, they should probably stay away from my brand.


Most Likely to Win

Most Deserving to Win

Slipped through the Cracks

Best Picture

No Country for Old Men

No Country for Old Men

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)

Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)

Best Actress

Julie Christie (Away from Her)

Julie Christie (Away from Her)

Marion Cotillard (La Vie en Rose)

Best Supporting Actor

Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)

Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)

Best Supporting Actress

Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)

Ruby Dee (American Gangster)

Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson (There Will Be Blood)

Julian Schnabel (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Le Scaphandre et le papillon))

Ethan Coen and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)

Best Original Screenplay

Diablo Cody (Juno)

Tamara Jenkins (The Savages)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Christopher Hampton (Atonement)

Ronald Harwood (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (Le Scaphandre et le papillon))

Ethan Coen and Joel Coen (No Country for Old Men)

Best Animated Feature



Best Foreign Language Film

Katyn (Poland)

12 (Russia)

The Counterfeiters (Austria)

Total Scores

5 easy ones to call

2 easy ones to like

5 perfectly predictable in hindsight

Color Key to Actual Results:
This is the closest I will ever get to a knighthood…
I wore this silly dress for this…?