Filming location for spaghetti westerns in Almería, Spain

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© 1987-2016
Scott Larson

Building façade in Cannes, France

2006 Academy Award Predictions…

I would love to boast that my prognosticating skills are getting better with age. But it’s obvious, even to casual observers, that this year’s horse race was just a lot more predictable than usual. Helen Mirren wasn’t so much voted the winner in her category as made the center of a coronation. And Martin Scorsese was like the guest of honor at the world’s worst kept secret of a surprise party. Sadly, that fulfilled the one available slot for the you’ve-been-nominated-way-too-many-times-without-winning-for-this-to-go-on-any-longer prize, so Peter O’Toole had to go home empty-handed for an eighth time in an acting category. (Hey, Peter! Give me a jingle and we’ll go drinking!)

But the big winner seemed to be Al Gore. Not only did “his” movie (An Inconvenient Truth) win in every category it was nominated in (feature documentary and best song—sort went from “hard out here for a pimp” to “hot out here for a planet”), he also got the best laugh of the evening, using nobody less than Leonardo DiCaprio as his straight man. Even the Oscar for Happy Feet felt like it was part of the Gore stop-climate-change steamroller. If he had campaigned like this seven years ago… On the other hand, I don’t think too many Academy ballots have to get sent in from south Florida. Host Ellen DeGeneres’s clever quip aside (referencing the fact that Gore actually won the popular vote in 2000), losing the Electoral College and/or American Idol only seems to enhance a nominee’s prospects in Tinseltown.

Anyway, I don’t care what contributed to my better forecast results this time around. I’m going back to scotch. Unless Peter actually does call, in which case I’ll have to go with Irish.


Most Likely to Win

Most Deserving to Win

Oh well…

Best Picture

The Departed

The Departed

Best Actor

Forest Whitaker (The Last King of Scotland)

Peter O’Toole (Venus)

Best Actress

Helen Mirren (The Queen)

Helen Mirren (The Queen)

Best Supporting Actor

Eddie Murphy (Dreamgirls)

Mark Wahlberg (The Departed)

Alan Arkin (Little Miss Sunshine)

Best Supporting Actress

Jennifer Hudson (Dreamgirls)

Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal)

Best Director

Martin Scorsese (The Departed)

Paul Greengrass (United 93)

Best Original Screenplay

Michael Arndt (Little Miss Sunshine)

Guillermo del Toro (Pan’s Labyrinth)

Best Adapted Screenplay

William Monahan (The Departed)

Todd Field and Tom Perrotta (Little Children)

Best Animated Feature

Happy Feet

Monster House

Best Foreign Language Film

Pan’s Labyrinth (Mexico)

Pan’s Labyrinth (Mexico)

The Lives of Others (Germany)

Total Scores

8 cases of seeming inevitability

2 instances of inspiration

2 incidents of too much flu medicine

Color Key to Actual Results:
I share this with all the nominees…
Fine, then I’ll take it on Thursdays…