Filming location for spaghetti westerns in Almería, Spain

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© 1987-2016
Scott Larson

Building façade in Cannes, France

2004 Academy Award Predictions…

So maybe I would be better off just seeing more of the movies, instead of trying to second-guess the Academy voters. Of course, Jamie Foxx was going to the get the Best Actor award. But it seemed like every case I could think of where people were nominated in two acting categories, they always got the supporting actor award. But common sense should have told me, “Collateral??” But I still stand by my predictions for Best Supporting Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay. It’s the Academy that was confused. Anyway, my score could have turned out much worse. The early awards gave every indication that I had bet all my marbles on the wrong horse. Happy as I was for Clint, I’m starting to feel very bad for Martin Scorsese. He definitely deserves an Oscar. But he may have to actually make a movie as good as his early work to get one.


Most Likely to Win

Most Deserving to Win


Best Picture

Million Dollar Baby

Million Dollar Baby

Best Actor

Don Cheadle (Hotel Rwanda)

Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)

Jamie Foxx (Ray)

Best Actress

Imelda Staunton (Vera Drake)

Catalina Sandino Moreno (Maria Full of Grace)

Hilary Swank (Million Dollar Baby)

Best Supporting Actor

Jamie Foxx (Collateral)

Morgan Freeman (Million Dollar Baby)

Best Supporting Actress

Laura Linney (Kinsey)

Sophie Okonedo (Hotel Rwanda)

Cate Blanchett (The Aviator)

Best Director

Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)

Clint Eastwood (Million Dollar Baby)

Best Original Screenplay

John Logan (The Aviator)

Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry, Pierre Bismuth (Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Paul Haggis (Million Dollar Baby)

Paul Haggis (Million Dollar Baby)

Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor (Sideways)

Best Animated Feature

The Incredibles

Shrek 2

Best Foreign Language Film

Mar adentro (Spain)

Les Choristes (France)

Total Scores

4 cases of following the script

4 incidents of welcome ad libs

4 outcomes obvious with hindsight

Color Key to Actual Results:
I have so many people to thank…
Let’s slip out and get to the party…