My 2023 Academy Award Predictions (for movies released in 2022)
Count ’em! Fourteen! I think that’s what’s called an Irish dozen… or something.
That’s officially a record number of Academy Award nominations bestowed on Ireland because, as we know, it is countries that get nominated for movie awards. Actually, they don’t, except maybe in the Best International Feature Film category, where films (ones not in English anyway) are submitted by various countries and which I think used to be called the Best Foreign Picture before it was called the Best Picture in a Language Other than English. But even then, they’ve never given the Oscar to the government of the country producing the movie. I’m pretty sure they give it to the lead producer(s) or somebody actually involved in making the movie. Unless it’s a documentary about Al Gore, in which case it would go to Al Gore, but now I’m digressing.
As an adopted/honorary/technically-legally-but-not-ethnically/another-bloody-blow-in Irishman, I am joining in the excitement of this country at doing so well in this most elevated of arts competitions. I’m also constantly looking for precedents that will require the Irish media to hail me as an Irish nominee when one or more of my novels is eventually adapted into an Oscar-winning screenplay. Otherwise, I’m just letting the national media self-congratulating wash over me.
For the record, let’s tally the score. Most of the Irish nominations were for The Banshees of Inisherin. That film got nine nods, which is the most ever for any movie considered to be Irish. It was nominated for Best Picture, Directing (Martin McDonagh), Actor in a Leading Role (Colin Farrell), Actor in a Supporting Role (Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan), Actress in a Supporting Role (Kerry Condon), Original Screenplay (Martin McDonagh), Film Editing (Mikkel E.G. Nielsen) and Original Score (Carter Burwell). Okay, McDonagh was actually born in London, but his parents are Irish, and he probably has an Irish passport because lots of Brits have gotten them, especially since Brexit. And Burwell’s an American (see what I mean about precedent?), and Nielsen is Danish, but I guess if you work on a movie filmed in Ireland then you’re Irish for purposes of counting nominations.
Irish people who worked on movies besides Banshees also got noms. They include the entire country of Ireland for An Cailín Ciúin aka The Quiet Girl (International Feature Film), Paul Mescal (Actor in a Leading Role for Aftersun), Tom Berkeley and Ross White for An Irish Goodbye (Best Live Action Short Film), Jonathan Redmond (nominated with Matt Villa) for Elvis (Best Achievement in Film Editing), and Richard Baneham (nominated with Joe Letteri, Eric Saindon and Daniel Barrett) for Avatar: The Way of Water (Best Achievement in Visual Effects).
You wouldn’t know it from listening to Irish media, but Banshees did not actually get the most overall nominations this year. That distinction goes to Everything Everywhere All at Once, which got 11. EEAaO is the kind of fun, mind-blowing, sci-fi/fantasy flick that used to keep me grounded in cynicism when it came to Oscar nominations because I could always count on that kind of crowd-pleaser getting ignored by the Academy. Now, ever since The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King broke all the rules by winning big, even in non-technical categories, it has gotten a lot harder to be cynical. The bookies say EEAaO will win big, and there is absolutely no way I can have a problem with that. I want it to win everything—except in categories where I don’t.
I’m delighted The Quiet Girl made it through to the final nominations. For my money, it’s not only the best Irish movie I saw all year, it’s the best movie from anywhere I saw all year. I’m worried for it, though. The German remake of All Quiet on the Western Front is nominated in that category as well as in the Best Picture category. (The Quiet Girl should have been nominated in both categories too.) Sometimes when that happens, the movie ends up winning in the International category as a consolation for being passed over the Best Picture category. I will be disappointed if that happens on Oscar night, but on the other hand, I guess there has to be something to feed whatever cynicism I have left.
|
Category |
Most Likely to Win |
Most Deserving to Win |
Should Have Been Nominated But Wasn’t |
|
Best Picture |
|||
|
Lead Actor |
Brendan Fraser (The Whale) |
Bill Nighy (Living) |
Anthony Hopkins (Armageddon Time) |
|
Lead Actress |
Cate Blanchett (Tár) |
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) |
Viola Davis (The Woman King) |
|
Supporting Actor |
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once) |
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin) |
Andrew Bennett (The Quiet Girl) |
|
Supporting Actress |
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) |
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) |
Frankie Corio (Aftersun) |
|
Director |
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) |
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once) |
Colm Bairéad (The Quiet Girl) |
|
Original Screenplay |
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once) |
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once) |
Mark Chappell (See How They Run) |
|
Adapted Screenplay |
Sarah Polley (Women Talking) |
Kazuo Ishiguro (Living) |
Colm Bairéad (The Quiet Girl) |
|
Animated Feature |
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio |
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio |
Apollo 10½: A Space Age Childhood |
|
Best International Feature Film |
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany) |
The Quiet Girl (Ireland) |
Decision to Leave (South Korea) |