My 2022 Academy Award Predictions (for movies released in 2021)
Boy, there’s sure a lot of red in that table down there where I grade my own Academy Award predictions. Let’s face it, I did a pretty bad job. In my defense, however, at least I didn’t slap anybody.
What these results show, I suppose, is that it’s kind of silly to (as is my tradition) try predicting winners within mere hours after the nominations are announced. It’s kind of like believing election polls months before there’s actually an election. Way back in early February, “everyone” was sure that Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog was a shoo-in for Best Picture. That was before it occurred to “everyone” to take a break from Netflix and see what was playing on Apple TV+ where they promptly fell in love with Siân Heder’s CODA. Or maybe “everyone” happened to listen to Marc Maron’s WTF podcast and was influenced by all those mean things Sam Elliott said about The Power of the Dog. Yeah, that’s likely what happened. All those Hollywood people heard an actor exuding old-style cowboy masculinity calling a female director’s beautifully filmed western “a piece of sh*t” and immediately decided that they weren’t showing enough cajones and better man up and switch their votes to a movie about manly Massachusetts fishermen. Yeah, that’s how Hollywood thinks.
Seriously, I don’t know how CODA captured the hearts of Academy voters—except maybe for the usual obvious reasons. Yes, it highlights a community that generally doesn’t get much attention in movies (I mean the deaf, not fishermen), and that’s something Hollywood likes. Otherwise, it is totally unlike most of the kinds of movies that make it into the awards arena. It’s a nice movie about nice people dealing with their challenges as best they can and making their lives all the better for it. Maybe that kind of movie has become so rare and quaint that it’s new and fresh again. And that’s nice, but let’s not get carried away. Let’s remember that the movie picking up the most Oscars on the night was Denis Villeneuve’s out-of-this-world Dune.
Covid‑19 has made at least one major difference to my personal Oscar experience. For most of my life, I watched the Oscar telecast without having seen a good many of the nominated films. That was because intended Oscar contenders have traditionally had their releases held back to the very end of the year and then only to have a limited release, just to qualify for the awards. For some reason, having most people in the world having not seen a movie creates buzz for it. Go figure. Well, that’s out the window now. That’s because of two reasons. The pandemic has caused the telecast date to be pushed out so that more of us have a chance to see more of the movies beforehand. More importantly, again because of Covid, many of the contenders are viewable on on streaming platforms, making them available to anyone who has the cost of a subscription.
Despite this, of course, I still managed not to see either of the films that won in the two big acting categories. Still, without having seen them, I’m still convinced that Academy voters picked the wrong winners. You’ll not convince me that Benedict Cumberbatch wasn’t robbed. In fact (and not to put too fine a point on it), you might say that this egregious slight amounts to a slap in the face.
|
Category |
Most Likely to Win |
Most Deserving to Win |
Most Actually Won |
|
Best Picture |
|||
|
Lead Actor |
Will Smith (King Richard) |
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) |
|
|
Lead Actress |
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) |
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) |
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye) |
|
Supporting Actor |
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) |
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) |
Troy Kotsur (CODA) |
|
Supporting Actress |
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) |
Judi Dench (Belfast) |
|
|
Director |
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) |
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) |
|
|
Original Screenplay |
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) |
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) |
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast) |
|
Adapted Screenplay |
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) |
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) |
Siân Heder (CODA) |
|
Animated Feature |
Encanto |
Encanto |
|
|
Best International Feature Film |
Drive My Car (Japan) |
Drive My Car (Japan) |
|
|
Total Scores |
5 |
3 |
5 |
Color Key to Actual Results:
Winners who got the Oscar
“Winners” who did not get the Oscar