Update: My 2019 Academy Award Predictions (for movies released in 2018)
We wake up today in a whole new world. It’s a fresh page that’s been turned over Hollywood. It’s a whole new era. Nothing will ever be the same. A new age has begun.
Yeah, right.
Like Lucy and the football (do people still know that Peanuts reference?), a lot of us got sucked in (again) by the hype that said things were finally changing. Sunday night’s Oscar telecast was a case study in things not changing. Specifically… a movie nominated for both Best Picture and Best Foreign Language Film? Give it the latter but not the former (especially when it comes from that bothersome Netflix that is messing up the old revenue model). With three nominated fine movies dealing in various ways with the African-American experience, who should get Best Picture? Not either of the two directed by African-Americans but the one directed by a white guy and which tells the story from a white guy’s point of view. (Wags had a great time comparing Green Book to Driving Miss Daisy and giving it the tagline “This time the racist is in the front seat!” As Spike Lee quipped afterwards backstage, “Every time somebody’s driving somebody, I lose.”) A Best Picture nominee that happens to be based on a comic book and which is loved by critics and audiences alike? Acknowledge it with technical awards but no way the Best Picture gong.
Oscar years generally fall into one of two categories. There are “winner takes all” years when one movie seems to get almost everything and “spread the wealth around” years when the awards are all over the place. This was a “spread the wealth around” year” which could also be called the “try to make everyone happy” kind of year. Spike didn’t get Best Picture or Best Director, but they gave him his first competitive Oscar co-writing BlacKkKlansman. Lady Gaga didn’t get Best Actress but she got a statuette for co-writing a song. Alfonso Cuarón didn’t get Best Picture, but he got to go onstage for Best Foreign Language Film and Best Director. Okay, it sounds like I’m starting to repeat myself.
All of this may sound like insightful analysis, but it is actually just excuse-making for the lousy job I did on my predictions. At least lots of other people (ones who should actually know better) had the same problem. Strangely, though, the various surprises of the night did not make any of it feel any less unpredictable.
So, when you woke up this morning, did the world look completely and utterly different to you? Nah, me neither.
|
Category |
Most Likely to Win |
Most Deserving to Win |
Most Actually Did Win |
|
Best Picture |
Green Book |
||
|
Best Actor |
Christian Bale (Vice) |
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) |
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody) |
|
Best Actress |
Glenn Close (The Wife) |
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) |
Olivia Colman (The Favourite) |
|
Best Supporting Actor |
Mahershala Ali (Green Book) |
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) |
|
|
Best Supporting Actress |
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) |
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) |
|
|
Best Director |
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) |
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) |
|
|
Best Original Screenplay |
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara (The Favourite) |
Paul Shrader (First Reformed) |
Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie and Peter Farrelly (Green Book) |
|
Best Adapted Screenplay |
Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman) |
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) |
|
|
Best Animated Feature |
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse |
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse |
|
|
Best Foreign Language Film |
Roma (Mexico) |
Shoplifters (Japan) |
|
|
Total Scores |
6 |
2 |
4 |
Color Key to Actual Results:
Actual Winners
Virtual Trophies for Just Showing Up