My 2019 Academy Award Predictions (for movies released in 2018)
Remember back when I used to moan and whinge about how I never got to see the major Academy Awards nominees before they got nominated because they almost always had not yet been widely released, especially in Ireland? Well, that has all changed. Thank you, Netflix. Now I will have to find a new excuse.
So that’s Roma sorted. It is indeed a very good film and deserving of all the plaudits it is getting. It also presents a somewhat interesting case for those of us who feel compelled to offer Oscar predictions. The bookmakers at this point (remember: I bravely issue these forecasts immediately after the nominations are announced, thereby making sure most of them will be wrong) seem to think Roma is a shoo-in for Best Picture, and I would have to agree, given its competition. It also happens to be a movie that is mostly in Spanish, which means that it qualifies for—and indeed has been nominated for—Best Foreign Language Film. Usually, what happens in a case like this is that the Academy splits the difference and gives the double-nominated flick the Foreign Language gong and then gives the Best Picture prize to something else. In this case, however, I am not so sure that will happen. I think it is hard to argue that Roma is not the best movie in the Best Picture category, and I think the Academy knows that. So will they flip things around and give Roma Best Picture and bestow the Best Foreign Language statuette on something else? Maybe, although that would create an illogical situation that would be hard to sustain. I’m betting that Roma gets both prizes.
At the same time I am sticking to my own prinicples and assert that the Best Picture award should actually go to Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther since I have after all gone on record as listing it as the best 2018 movie I have seen to date. Doing so feels a bit weird. After all, Black Panther is not the kind of movie that usually gets nominated, let alone wins, major Oscars. On the other hand, maybe it should be. After all, the really weird thing about the Oscars is that so many of them go to so many movies seen by so few people. Black Panther was seen by gazillions. (Yes, I have just re-checked by data sources, and it was literally gazillions.) And on top of that, it was really well made and really good. For years I have fearlessly ranked (mostly Marvel) great superhero movies at or near the top of my annual best-films lists, and I am not going to shirk when it comes to my Oscar punditry. So it’s official. Scott says Black Panther for Best Picture!
As usual, most of the rest of my predictions below are arrived at by osmosis, thereby proving that you do not actually need to see most of the movies to know what is right.
With that out of the way, there is nothing left but to ponder what drink will be served during the all-night telecast. I think it is probably time to get back to basics. So, yes, I think it will be scotch. Here’s mud in your eye.
|
Category |
Most Likely to Win |
Most Deserving to Win |
Should Have Been Nominated But Wasn’t |
|
Best Picture |
|||
|
Best Actor |
Christian Bale (Vice) |
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born) |
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) |
|
Best Actress |
Glenn Close (The Wife) |
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) |
Toni Collette (Hereditary) |
|
Best Supporting Actor |
Mahershala Ali (Green Book) |
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?) |
Timothée Chalamet (Beautiful Boy) |
|
Best Supporting Actress |
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk) |
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite) |
Kiersey Clemons (Hearts Beat Loud) |
|
Best Director |
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) |
Alfonso Cuarón (Roma) |
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther) |
|
Best Original Screenplay |
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara (The Favourite) |
Paul Shrader (First Reformed) |
Boots Riley (Sorry to Bother You) |
|
Best Adapted Screenplay |
Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott and Spike Lee (BlackKKlansman) |
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk) |
Peter Chiarelli and Adele Lim (Crazy Rich Asians) |
|
Best Animated Feature |
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse |
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse |
Early Man |
|
Best Foreign Language Film |
Roma (Mexico) |
Shoplifters (Japan) |
El Ángel (Argentina) |