Filming location for spaghetti westerns in Almería, Spain

Custom Search

© 1987-2017
Scott Larson

Building façade in Cannes, France

Update: My 2017 Academy Award Predictions (for movies released in 2016)

Well, so much for complaining that the Academy Awards ceremony has become too scripted and too devoid of drama and surprises.

Having said that, however, the actual results largely followed what the bookies and oddsmakers and inebriated bloggers had been saying from early on. In the categories below, the only surprises as such were in the Foreign Language category—and that should not have been such a surprise given the political element—and the Best Picture category. Even that latter one was not that much of surprise in that Moonlight is exactly the kind of film that in the past has often upset the kind of favorite that La La Land is exactly. Really, the only surprise about Best Picture was the unbelievable cock-up in its awarding. Yet if not for that cock-up, would there be anything worth talking about the day after? I am often surprised how quickly I (of all people) forget which movie actually won Best Picture in a given year. I do not think anybody will soon forget which film won—and then really won—for this year.

While I regret that Arrival did not do better, I do not at all begrudge La La Land and Moonlighting their well deserved prizes. Indeed, this was not at all a bad year for movies—even the kind that end up dominating the awards seasons. It was the kind of year that makes you feel a bit less cynical about the Hollywood entertainment industry while, at the same time, underlining how pointless all the award frenzy and competition and self-back-patting really is. Yet people like me still stay up all night so as not to miss any of it. After all, there is always the possibility of getting to see a big cock-up.


Most Likely
to Win

Most Deserving
to Win

Voting Has Consequences

Best Picture

La La Land



Best Actor

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)

Best Actress

Emma Stone (La La Land)

Ruth Negga (Loving)

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis (Fences)

Naomie Harris (Moonlight)

Best Director

Damien Chazelle (La La Land)

Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)

Best Original Screenplay

Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)

Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)

Eric Heisserer (Arrival)

Best Animated Feature


Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Foreign Language Film

Toni Erdmann (Germany)

Toni Erdmann (Germany)

The Salesman (Iran)

Total Scores

instances of me taking a drink because of playing the predictability drinking game

cases of me having a double in celebration

occurrences of me snorking my drink out my nose

Color Key to Actual Results:
Not Winners
Winner, but only briefly and abortively, i.e. not really