My 2011 Academy Award Predictions (for movies released in 2010)

Okay, here they are. What they lack in reliability and insight they make up for by being out early and not changing—no matter how silly they start to seem as the date of the Academy Awards telecast draws nearer. Say what you want but, hey, they’re worth every penny you’ve paid for them.

My main regrets? Well, for one thing, that the wonderful Irish/Luxembourgois film The Runway did not qualify—not that it would have gotten any nominations even if it had. Also, I think movies like Let Me In, Kick-Ass and Made in Dagenham got robbed—although no one, including me, seriously thought they were contenders. Christopher Nolan got slighted, but that doesn’t really bother me. Inception was good, but not quite as good as its most ardent supporters insist. And anyway, Nolan clearly has lots of awards in his future. The oddsmakers seem pretty sure that Colin Firth and Natalie Portman have the main acting awards sewn up, and that’s just fine.

So enough with the boring chat about the quality of the movies and the acting. Let’s get down to the important issues. What will I be drinking on Oscar night? I’ve been thinking about bucking tradition and going for margaritas. I’ve discovered that I can actually buy triple sec in Northern Ireland, even though I have never been able to find it in the republic. This solves my margarita problem, except that I only get up to the North about once every three years. So most of the time I substitute Cointreau instead. I don’t know if this breaks some law or rule, but it tastes just fine. In any event, I probably won’t do the margarita thing. The noise from the blender could keep the Missus and the kid up all night. I might stick with the semi-traditional barrel of martinis.

So all of the important planning has been done. Nothing to do now but brace myself for the humiliation when someone checks my list against the actual winners.

Category	Most Likely to Win	Most Deserving to Win	Should Have Been Nominated But Wasn’t
Best Picture	The Social Network	The King’s Speech	Let Me In
Best Actor	Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)	James Franco (127 Hours)	Kodi Smit-McPhee (Let Me In)
Best Actress	Natalie Portman (Black Swan)	Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)	Chloë Grace Moretz (Let Me In)
Best Supporting Actor	Christian Bale (The Fighter)	Christian Bale (The Fighter)	Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
Best Supporting Actress	Melissa Leo (The Fighter)	Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)	Miranda Richardson (Made in Dagenham)
Best Director	David Fincher (The Social Network)	Joel & Ethan Coen (True Grit)	Christopher Nolan (Inception)
Best Original Screenplay	David Seidler (The King’s Speech)	David Seidler (The King’s Speech)	William Ivory (Made in Dagenham)
Best Adapted Screenplay	Aaron Sorkin (The Social Network)	Danny Boyle & Simon Beaufoy (127 Hours)	Matt Reeves (Let Me In)
Best Animated Feature	Toy Story 3	The Illusionist	The Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole
Best Foreign Language Film	Biutiful (Mexico)	Hors-la-loi (Algeria)	Des Hommes and des dieux (France)