Filming location for spaghetti westerns in Almería, Spain

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© 1987-2016
Scott Larson

Building façade in Cannes, France

My 2010 Academy Award Predictions (for movies released in 2009)

Okay, first the usual disclaimers. Don’t think for one moment that not having seen most of the nominees is somehow an impediment to making entertainment predictions. It is merely an impediment to making accurate predictions. But, of course, even people who have seen every single nominated film, as well as all the films not nominated, usually don’t predict the winners with 100 percent accuracy. You might want to put your faith in high-falutin’ critics who go to Cannes every May, but as far as I’m concerned, I have a shot at getting equally accurate predictions using a, well, shot. Specifically, of scotch. Drink enough of it and you’d be surprised what kind of insights come flooding into your brain. In fact, well, uh, let’s see, where was I?

Contrary to appearances, I do have rationales for some, if not all, of my predictions. I have discussed those in my weekly commentary. In the meantime, I will be looking forward to my annual insomnia-thon on Oscar night. I plan to get through the night and early morning by playing my favorite drinking game: one shot for every category I predicted correctly and two shots for all the ones I got wrong.


Most Likely to Win

Most Deserving to Win

Should Have Been Nominated But Wasn’t

Best Picture


The Hurt Locker

Moon, Invictus

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges (Crazy Heart)

Jeremy Renner (The Hurt Locker)

Sam Rockwell (Moon)

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock (The Blind Side)

Gabourey Sidibe (Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire)

Katie Jarvis (Fish Tank)

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

Christoph Waltz (Inglourious Basterds)

Michael Fassbender (Fish Tank)

Best Supporting Actress

Mo’Nique (Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire)

Maggie Gyllenhaal (Crazy Heart)

Rebecca Griffiths (Fish Tank)

Best Director

James Cameron (Avatar)

Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker)

Duncan Jones (Moon), Clint Eastwood (Invictus)

Best Original Screenplay

Quentin Tarantino (Inglourious Basterds)

Mark Boal (The Hurt Locker)

Duncan Jones & Nathan Parker (Moon)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner (Up in the Air)

Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner (Up in the Air)

Tom Ford & David Scearce (A Single Man)

Best Animated Feature



Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

Best Foreign Language Film

Das weisse Band – Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte (Germany)

Un prophète (A Prophet) (France)

La nana (Chile)