My 2022 Academy Award Predictions (for movies released in 2021)
What’s a snarky film blogger perpetually attempting to strike an edgy, iconoclastic pose supposed to do? The older I get, the more I find myself agreeing with the conventional wisdom or, more to the point, the bookies. Or rather, they find themselves agreeing with me.
In seven of the ten Academy Awards categories for which I traditionally make predictions, I agreed with the odds-makers. Even when it came to predicting winners that I hadn’t even seen yet. It’s like I’m perpetually doomed to relive the year that The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King swept the nominations and awards. In a way, Jane Campion’s Power of the Dog is this year’s Return of the King. There’s just something about New Zealand filmmakers.
As usual, it’s the acting categories that are most problematic for me. Will Smith has garnered much praise for his performance as tennis patriarch Richard Williams, but it’s hard for me to imagine it’s as good as what Benedict Cumberbatch did in Campion’s flick. As for the Lead Actress slot, what a choice. Technically speaking, maybe Olivia Colman did the best job, but she’s already got so many awards, and I don’t know that Maggie Gyllenhaal’s movie really made the best use of her talents. Meanwhile, Nicole Kidman’s turn as Lucille Ball was something I couldn’t look away from. That’s usually not a good thing in a performance, but this seems to be the exception that proves the rule. Supporting Actor was an excruciating choice. Ciarán Hinds, J.K. Simmons and Kodi Smit-McPhee all did amazing jobs, and I would have gladly given any of them my own personal nod. In the end, though, Hinds’s moving performance loaded with gravitas has to be it. Besides, I feel like a traitor to my adopted country for not picking Belfast for more categories. Maybe that’s why I also went with Judi Dench for Supporting Actress, even though, despite being a National Treasure™, she’s apparently a longshot. Some people in the Irish media quibbled about her Ulster accent, but it was more than good enough for these Yank ears.
I never predict the Best Song category, but mentioning it gives me more opportunity to talk about Belfast. One of the film’s pleasures was its wall-to-wall Van Morrison songtrack, and The Man even contributed a brand new song, which has gotten a nomination. I’m glad the Academy voters weren’t put off by the controversy the musician has made for himself the past couple of years. If any group of people should know that there are few things more dangerous than the notion that some ideas are too dangerous, it’s the filmmaking community.
So, here are my predictions/opinions/quibbles. Ponder them. Muse over them. Reflect on them for the next 47 days, and on the evening of the awards ceremony when you are feeling smug about the predictions you made that very morning, remember that I came up with mine more than six whole weeks earlier. Because I’m an idiot.
|
Category |
Most Likely to Win |
Most Deserving to Win |
Should Have Been Nominated But Wasn’t |
|
Best Picture |
|||
|
Lead Actor |
Will Smith (King Richard) |
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog) |
Ralph Fiennes (The Dig) |
|
Lead Actress |
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) |
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos) |
Carey Mulligan (The Dig) |
|
Supporting Actor |
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog) |
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast) |
Bill Murray (The French Dispatch) |
|
Supporting Actress |
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story) |
Judi Dench (Belfast) |
Olga Merediz (In the Heights) |
|
Director |
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) |
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) |
Jon M. Chu (In the Heights) |
|
Original Screenplay |
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) |
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza) |
Anthony Grieco (Best Sellers) |
|
Adapted Screenplay |
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) |
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog) |
Moira Buffini (The Dig) |
|
Animated Feature |
Encanto |
Encanto |
Belle |
|
Best International Feature Film |
Drive My Car (Japan) |
Drive My Car (Japan) |
I’m Your Man (Germany) |