My 2020 Academy Award Predictions (for movies released in 2019)
The best movie of 2019? It is Avengers: Endgame, of course. Well, that settles that.
No, I am not asserting that simply because the Marvel blockbuster currently tops my ever-evolving ranking of movies I have seen which were released during 2019. I am basing that on box office receipts. Honestly, do or should any votes count more than those of ordinary people all over the world who fork over their hard-earned money in the expectation that they will be entertained?
Yet the most commercially successful feature film of the year was nominated in only a single category for the Academy Awards: Visual Effects.
Okay, now that I’ve had my annual obligatory populist rant against the elites, let us acknoweldge reality. The Oscars were never intended to be “audience choice” or “popular”—and certainly not highest-grossing—awards. They are meant to be recognition of people doing outstanding work in the movie industry as voted on by their professional peers. Given that, where do people like me (not to mention every other critic and blogger) get off second-guessing their judgment and lecturing them about how they’ve gotten it wrong? Well, think of me as the film industry’s reality check. I’m the guy sitting on the sofa in front of the TV bloviating about which sports team is better when the two teams have just played a game and their is a score on the board. I’m providing you with my own poor excuse for entertainment. It might not be as entertaining as watching a movie, but it’s a heck of a lot cheaper and much less time-consuming.
Despite what I have just asserted, the Oscar nominations are not automatically above reproach. Far from it. Given the number of people voting—especially in the Best Picture category—the choices become extremely prone to herd instinct, professional pressures and overt politics. The best films and artists do not always get nominated—let alone win—for more or less the same reason that we never seem to have enlightened philosopher-king geniuses in Congress or in the White House.
So taking all that into account, how did the Academy voters do this year? Who cares? Frankly, if I were personally and artistically invested in getting a prize for a movie I had worked on, the only category I would worry about is Visual Effects. That is the one category that seems to be in sync with what the unwashed masses out there actually want.
|
Category |
Most Likely to Win |
Most Deserving to Win |
Should Have Been Nominated But Wasn’t |
|
Best Picture |
|||
|
Lead Actor |
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker) |
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory) |
Taron Egerton (Rocketman) |
|
Lead Actress |
Renee Zellweger (Judy) |
Renee Zellweger (Judy) |
Lupita Nyong’o (Us) |
|
Supporting Actor |
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time… in Hollywood) |
Joe Pesci (The Irishman) |
Jamie Bell (Rocketman) |
|
Supporting Actress |
Laura Dern (Marriage Story) |
Florence Pugh (Little Women) |
Scarlett Johansson (Avengers: Endgame) |
|
Director |
Martin Scorsese (The Irishman) |
Sam Mendes (1917) |
Anthony Russo and Joe Russo (Avengers: Endgame) |
|
Original Screenplay |
Noah Baumbach (Marriage Story) |
Rian Johnson (Knives Out) |
Jack Barth and Richard Curtis (Yesterday) |
|
Adapted Screenplay |
Steven Zaillian (The Irishman) |
Greta Gerwig (Little Women) |
Christopher Markus and Stephen McFeely (Avengers: Endgame) |
|
Animated Feature |
Toy Story 4 |
I Lost My Body |
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon |
|
Best International Feature Film |
Parasite (South Korea) |
Parasite (South Korea) |
The Whistlers (Romania) |