Update: My 2017 Academy Award Predictions (for movies released in 2016)

Well, so much for complaining that the Academy Awards ceremony has become too scripted and too devoid of drama and surprises.

Having said that, however, the actual results largely followed what the bookies and oddsmakers and inebriated bloggers had been saying from early on. In the categories below, the only surprises as such were in the Foreign Language category—and that should not have been such a surprise given the political element—and the Best Picture category. Even that latter one was not that much of surprise in that Moonlight is exactly the kind of film that in the past has often upset the kind of favorite that La La Land is exactly. Really, the only surprise about Best Picture was the unbelievable cock-up in its awarding. Yet if not for that cock-up, would there be anything worth talking about the day after? I am often surprised how quickly I (of all people) forget which movie actually won Best Picture in a given year. I do not think anybody will soon forget which film won—and then really won—for this year.

While I regret that Arrival did not do better, I do not at all begrudge La La Land and Moonlighting their well deserved prizes. Indeed, this was not at all a bad year for movies—even the kind that end up dominating the awards seasons. It was the kind of year that makes you feel a bit less cynical about the Hollywood entertainment industry while, at the same time, underlining how pointless all the award frenzy and competition and self-back-patting really is. Yet people like me still stay up all night so as not to miss any of it. After all, there is always the possibility of getting to see a big cock-up.

Category	Most Likely to Win	Most Deserving to Win	Voting Has Consequences
Best Picture	La La Land	Arrival	Moonlight
Best Actor	Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)	Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Best Actress	Emma Stone (La La Land)	Ruth Negga (Loving)
Best Supporting Actor	Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)	Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)
Best Supporting Actress	Viola Davis (Fences)	Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Best Director	Damien Chazelle (La La Land)	Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Best Original Screenplay	Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)	Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Best Adapted Screenplay	Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)	Eric Heisserer (Arrival)
Best Animated Feature	Zootopia	Kubo and the Two Strings
Best Foreign Language Film	Toni Erdmann (Germany)	Toni Erdmann (Germany)	The Salesman (Iran)
Total Scores	8 instances of me taking a drink because of playing the predictability drinking game	3 cases of me having a double in celebration	2 occurrences of me snorking my drink out my nose

Color Key to Actual Results:
Winners
Not Winners
Winner, but only briefly and abortively, i.e. not really